On September 13, 2025, Bayern Munich will meet Hamburg in the third round of the German Bundesliga. The match will kick off at 18:30 Central European Time. Here’s an analysis of both teams’ chances of scoring.
Bayern
Bayern has started the new season strongly. They won the Super Cup against Stuttgart 2-1, followed by a 6-0 victory over Leipzig in their first league match. In the German Cup, Bayern faced some challenges but managed to defeat Wehen 3-2. Before the international break, they also triumphed over Augsburg with a 3-2 win.
Currently, Bayern tops the league table with six points and a solid goal difference. At home, they are particularly impressive; their last home loss at the Allianz Arena was against Inter in the Champions League last season, while their only Bundesliga home defeat was to Bochum back in March.
Historically, Bayern has dominated home matches against Hamburg. The last seven games held at Bayern’s stadium have all resulted in wins for the home team, with over 3.5 goals scored each time. Hamburg has consistently struggled against Bayern, often losing decisively.
Hamburg
Hamburg’s return to the top division has been challenging. Their season began with a cup match where they narrowly beat an Oberliga team in extra time, raising concerns. In their first Bundesliga games, they drew 0-0 with Borussia Mönchengladbach and then lost 2-0 at home to St. Pauli. After these two matches, Hamburg sits in 15th place and has yet to score a goal in the league.
Historically, matches against Bayern have not gone well for Hamburg. Their last victory over Bayern was in 2011 during a cup match, and since then, they have lost the last nine encounters.
Probable lineups
- Bayern: Neuer, Stanisic, Tah, Upamecano, Laimer, Goretzka, Kimmich, Dias, Olise, Gnabry, Kane.
- Hamburg: Heuer Fernandes, Torunarigha, Elfadli, Omari, Muheim, Meffert, Kalpado, Remberg, Sahiti, Ressing-Lelesiit, Königsdörffer.
Key facts and head-to-head stats
- Bayern has won 8 of their last 9 matches.
- Bayern has won their last 7 home matches.
- 4 of Bayern’s last 6 matches have featured over 3.5 goals.
- Hamburg has failed to win 8 of their last 9 matches.
- Bayern has won their last 9 head-to-head meetings.
- Bayern has won their last 4 home head-to-head matches.
- 3 of the last 4 head-to-head meetings have seen over 3.5 goals.
Bayern vs Hamburg match prediction
Bayern is favored to win this match convincingly. They have begun the season in dominant form, while Hamburg has not yet scored a league goal. Historically, Bayern has had a strong advantage at home, frequently winning by large margins. Therefore, a comfortable victory for Bayern appears likely, with my bet for the match being over 3.5 goals at odds of 1.59.
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