Paraguay vs Ecuador: Match Predictions and Betting Insights for September 5, 2025

On Friday, September 5, at 01:30 CET in Asunción, Paraguay will face Ecuador in the 17th round of the South American qualifiers for the 2026 World Cup. We will focus on the scoring potential of both teams in this matchup.

Paraguay

The Paraguayan national team is enjoying a strong qualifying campaign, demonstrating good form and consistency. In their last ten matches, Paraguay has lost only once, a tight 0-1 defeat to Brazil. Currently, they are in fifth place and nearly guaranteed a spot in the next round, a significant improvement from their eighth-place finish in the previous cycle.

At home, Paraguay is especially strong, holding the second-best home record in the qualifiers with 19 points from eight games, nine goals scored, and just three conceded. They are also on a five-game winning streak at home, keeping clean sheets in three of those matches.

When playing against Ecuador at home, Paraguay is confident. In their last five home matches against Ecuador, they have won four and drawn once. These games are usually high-scoring, with four of the last five encounters in Paraguay featuring over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.

Ecuador

Ecuador has already qualified for the World Cup and will participate in the tournament for the second time in a row. They head into the final qualifying matches in excellent form, with an unbeaten streak of nine games, including four wins and five draws. Notably, their defense has been strong, with all five draws ending 0-0 and keeping their opponents scoreless in seven of those nine games.

Ecuador is also effective on the road. In eight away matches, they have earned 10 points, scoring three goals and conceding three, making them one of the more successful traveling teams in the qualifiers.

The head-to-head record with Paraguay shows a balanced rivalry. In their last six matches, each team has two wins and there have been two draws. Despite Ecuador’s generally low-scoring approach, matches against Paraguay tend to be more open, with four of the last five scoring over 2.5 goals and both teams finding the net.

Probable lineups

• Paraguay: Fernandez, Alonso, Alderete, G. Gomez, Caceres, Almiron, Galarza, Cubas, D. Gomez, Kaku, Sanabria.
• Ecuador: Galindez, Estupiñán, Hincapié, Pacho, Ordoñez, Angulo, Vite, Caicedo, Plata, Valencia, Yeboah.

Key facts and head-to-head stats

• Paraguay is on a five-game home winning streak.
• Paraguay is unbeaten in 9 of their last 10 matches.
• Three of Paraguay’s last four games ended with under 2.5 goals.
• Ecuador is unbeaten in 12 of their last 13 matches.
• 10 of Ecuador’s last 12 games ended with under 2.5 goals.
• Paraguay is unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings.

Prediction for Paraguay vs Ecuador

Since Ecuador has already qualified for the World Cup, this match holds little significance for them. Conversely, Paraguay is close to qualification and needs a home victory or points to confirm their success. Ecuador has the best defense in the qualifiers, conceding only five goals, but with little at stake, this game might be more open than usual. Paraguay appears confident at home, boasting a five-game winning streak and being unbeaten against Ecuador in four of their last five meetings. Given Paraguay’s strong home record and Ecuador’s secure position, a more open and potentially high-scoring match is expected. My bet for this game: over 1.5 total goals at odds of 1.59.