Premier League: Comparing XG of Top Clubs Early in 2026

The 2025/26 Premier League season is in progress, with expected goals (xG) stats providing insights into team performances as 2026 begins.

All teams have played 21 matches, and the Premier League xG table shows which teams are creating good chances, which have defensive weaknesses, and who is exceeding or falling short of their expected results.

xG measures the quality of scoring chances and often predicts long-term success better than the actual standings.

Arsenal tops the Premier League xG table with 44 expected points (xPTS), showing strong performance, while struggling teams like Burnley sit at just 14 xPTS.

Here’s a closer look at the top clubs based on xG, xGA (expected goals against), and xPTS, along with discrepancies from actual outcomes.

Arsenal

Arsenal leads the Premier League xG standings with 37.2 xG (a +2.8 difference from goals scored) and 15.2 xGA (a -1.2 difference from goals conceded). This results in 44 xPTS (+5 difference from actual points), showcasing their efficiency.

This team is slightly overperforming in scoring and defense, making them favorites for the Premier League title. Their balanced stats indicate strong potential for the season ahead.

Manchester City

Manchester City, under Pep Guardiola, has the highest xG at 40.2 (+4.8 difference), indicating their strong chance creation this season. However, their 23.1 xGA (-4.1 difference) shows improvements in defense.

With 41 xPTS (+2 difference), they are nearly on par with expectations but could gain an advantage if they maintain their attacking form. Their goal-scoring performance keeps them in the title race.

Manchester United

Manchester United ranks third in the Premier League xG table with 38.3 xG (-2.3 difference) and 27.0 xGA (+5.0 difference), totaling 36 xPTS (-4 difference). They are underperforming offensively but conceding more than expected. Improved finishing could help them rise higher.

Liverpool

Liverpool holds the fourth position with 32.3 xG (-0.3 difference) and 23.8 xGA (+4.2 difference), resulting in 35 xPTS. Under Arne Slot, the team has a balanced approach, but their modest xG indicates a need for more creativity to compete for the top spots.

Newcastle United

Newcastle has a xG of 31.7 (+0.3 difference) and 23.7 xGA (+3.3 difference), totaling 34 xPTS (-2 difference). Their performance is close to expectations, though some defensive issues have held them back. Eddie Howe’s team shows promise and aims for European competition.

Chelsea

Chelsea has generated 37.3 xG (-3.3 difference) but has 29.6 xGA (-5.6 difference), leading to 33 xPTS (-2 difference). Enzo Maresca’s attacking style creates opportunities but leaves their defense vulnerable. Can Liam Rosenior’s approach improve their standings?

Notable Over and Underperformers

Crystal Palace is seventh with 33.7 xG (-11.7 difference), significantly underperforming on offense, and 27.8 xGA (-4.8 difference), totaling 33 xPTS (-5 difference). Brentford (34.8 xG, +0.2 difference) and Brighton (33.6 xG, -2.6 difference) showcase mid-table stability.

Aston Villa stands out as a significant overachiever with 25 xPTS, a +18 difference from expected points driven by +7.3 in goals scored. Wolves are experiencing major underperformance with a -17 points difference, while Sunderland is exceeding expectations.

What is xG?

Expected goals (xG) assesses how likely a shot is to become a goal, considering factors like distance, angle, and pressure. A close-range shot has a high xG, while a long-range attempt has a low one. By summing these values, xG illustrates a team’s attacking or defensive effectiveness beyond just the final score.